Kenya: Heavy rainfall expected beginning October to December

Kenya is headed for heavy rainfall during the short rains season of October, November to December. This is the main rain season for much of the Eastern part of the country.

Kenya and the horn of Africa region has been in the throes of a devastating drought that saw the cost of food skyrocket as a result of a shortfall in maize production on account of poor rainfall spanning six seasons. 

Livestock deaths occurred in the Arid and Semi Arid Lands (ASALs) of the northern parts of Kenya counties including Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa and the Coastal counties of Kilifi. 

This is expected to end with the onset of the short rains season expected in the second week of October through to December. 

"Warmer than average sea surface temperatures over the western Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to the East African coastline) coupled by cooler than average SSTs over the Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to Australia) constitutes a positive Indian Ocean Dipole that is favourable for good rainfall over much of East Africa," said Peter Ambenje the Director of Kenya Meteorological Service.  

The Meteorologists indicate that the country will receive enhanced rainfall “that will be well distributed both in time and space,” he said noting that the rainfall will be helpful in increasing food production.

The north eastern counties of Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo which are mainly Arid and Semi Arid Lands (ASALs) that were hardest hit during the drought that has lasted six rainfall seasons (three years) are expected to receive above normal rainfall.  

The other regions expected to receive above normal rainfall include Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, parts of Tana River Counties. The others include Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murang’a, Nyandarua, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi and Marsabit.

The rest are Turkana and Samburu that are expected to receive above normal rainfall during the short rains season. 

The rest of the country including counties in Western Kenya, Busia, Vihiga, Kakamega and Bungoma will receive near normal rainfall. The others that will receive near normal rainfall include; Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, Nyamira, Migori, Kisii, Kericho, West Pokot, Nandi, Bomet, Baringo, Uasin Gishu and Trans Nzoia.

The rest of the counties that will receive near normal rainfall are; Nakuru, Narok, Kajiado, Nairobi, Kiambu, Taita Taveta, Machakos, Makueni and Kitui.

Meteorologists who spoke at the release of the short rains seasonal forecast warned that central Kenya region will have to content with natural disasters including mudslides and lightning.

 "We advise residents of Gatanga and the larger Murang’a county to install lightning arresters on their buildings to prevent casualties from lightning strikes," said Paul Murage the Director of Meteorological Services in Murang’a County.

Ambenje warned that incidents of flash floods and lightning in the Western Kenya region as well and urged residents to take precaution, "by avoiding sheltering under trees during rainstorms."

He urged the agriculture and food security sector to take advantage of the good rainfall expected to increase food production as well as ensure hydro power generation owing to the expected good water inflows into the hydros.

He asked the Ministry of Health to ensure sufficient supply of medicines in hospitals to prevent epidemics including malaria owing to the enhanced rainfall.

He appealed to the environment and natural resources sector to take advantage of the rains and plant trees so as to increase the forest cover to the envisaged 10% of the land area.

The Director of Meteorological Services noted that there is a 30% probability of El Nino rains occurring, as a result of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

 By: Judith Akolo