Deputy Director of Meteorological Services Samuel Mwangi says even as the weather systems are still “disorganized” most of the areas predicted to experience the onset in the second to the third week of October will still receive the much needed rainfall.
Kenya usually has two main rain seasons, the long rains season that occurs from March to May and the second season, the short rains season that takes place between October and December.
Kenya and the Horn of Africa region have been experiencing a long drought stretching through six seasons in three years.
However, Mwangi says satellite images are showing that the rain bearing clouds are almost crossing into Kenya as the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves southwards.
“Kenyans should not be overly worried as the forecast is still within the stated time,” he said and added, “most of the country was predicted to begin experiencing the onset of the short rains season in the second to the third week of October and we are within the time margins.”
He however noted that livestock keepers in parts of Kajiado may have to wait until towards the end of the month “since the rain bearing clouds are moving rather slowly downwards.”
He noted that the Western Kenya region is already receiving the rainfall as per the prediction and will continue well into January.
In the meantime, the biting drought continues to affect livestock in Garissa County with loses running into millions of shillings due to livestock death as a result of lack of water and pasture.
Local leaders from Goreale Ward in Lagdera constituency are now calling on both the national and county governments to provide alternatives to alleviate the situation.
A spot check in the area revealed hundreds of livestock carcasses while the surviving livestock were barely on their last legs.
Mwangi said the malaria outbreak in parts of Baringo county is due to a multiplication of factors, with the weather being one of them.
“A combination of rainfall and high temperatures are conducive for growth of malaria vectors, the mosquito,” he said and noted that the high number of cases could be as a result of shortage of health services owing to the ongoing strike.
He said models that can predict disease outbreaks that are attributed to weather and climate can help in providing early warning information.
According to the seven day weather forecast released by the Kenya Meteorological Service, Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley are expected to receive rainfall as well as parts of the Northwest; The Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central and South Rift Valley including the counties of Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Transnzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi, Laikipia, Nakuru, Narok, Kajiado, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma and Busia are expected to experience rains over few places with showers and thunderstorms expected on Thursday and Friday.
The Northwestern counties of Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are expected to experience sunny intervals in the morning on Tuesday and Wednesday then rains over few places for the remainder of the forecast period
The Central Highlands including, Nairobi area including counties of Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, and Tharaka are expected to experience cloudy mornings giving way to sunny intervals, however Wednesday to the end of the forecast period. Thursday and Friday are expected to receive rainfall over several places.
The Northeastern counties of Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo are expected to experience sunny intervals the whole day throughout the forecast period. Thursday and Friday morning may however receive rains over few places
The Southeastern counties of Kitui, Makueni, Machakos and Taita Taveta are expected to experience mainly sunny intervals the whole day throughout the forecast period
The Coastal Strip counties of Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale are expected to experience mainly sunny intervals the entire day for much of the forecast period. Sunday and Monday morning may however receive showers over few places especially in the South Coast.
Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda have been experiencing torrential rainfall that has seen the destruction of buildings.
By:Judith Dora Akolo
Kenya Broadcasting Corporation (KBC)
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